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Weekly Excess Death Rate Analysis

European Countries

Data Sources: Eurostat, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, UN.

February 2024

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Data:

The data is based upon weekly deaths data from eurostat spanning from 2010 to 2023. For some countries (such as Germany) data is unavailable; and for others it is only available from 2015 onwards.

Countries: AT, BE, BG, CZ, DK, DE, EL (Greece), ES, FR, IT, HU, NL, PL, PT, RO, FI, SE, NO.

Source for Weekly Deaths (Eurostat): Eurostat table: Deaths by week, sex and 5-year age group.

Source for Vaccination data: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

Source for Population Estimates (Eurostat and UN): Eurostat table: Population on 1st January by age, sex and type of projection.

Comment:

The dashboard below summarises the analysis of weekly excess mortality for different age groups in different European countries. It allows individuals, researchers and institutions to visualise the data, and make their own conclusions based upon what they view. Users can browse the different countries and age groups. Each interactive chart attempts to capture different aspects of the observed excess mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic years. All the data is downloadable and the original data sources, as well as methodologies to analyse the data, are provided. We will endeavour to update our servers as new data becomes available.

Weekly Excess Mortality Analysis

In order to estimate weekly excess mortality we perform a 2-step approach to estimate the baseline deaths. The first step is by estimating the trend in death rates using annual data as described in our methodology papers, while using method 2C.

The second step is to estimate weekly excess deaths by comparing deaths or death rates in a given week with the average death rate, which is computed using the average weekly frequency of deaths over a period of N-years (typically 5 to 10 years depending on the data availability). By using both methods in conjunction we obtain a trend adjusted and week of year adjusted estimate for excess mortality.

Our analysis computes both excess death rates and excess deaths, which are obtained by multiplying the excess death rates with population estimates for the given year.

Weekly data provides a granularity that allows us to investigate the impact of immediate vaccination deaths, lockdowns, or other effects, on excess mortality.

Excess Mortality vs Vax.

The following chart shows the analysis of excess mortality for 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023, for different age groups. The Covid-19 vaccinations data (right hand scale) refers to the total accumulated doses for 2021 and 2022, as a percentage of the respective age group population.

The user can specify the European country and the method for estimating excess mortality. It should be noted that some countries do not provide either the Covid-19 vaccination data or weekly deaths data to Eurostat, such as for example Germany.

Weekly excess mortality, from 2020 to 2023.

Excess Mortality Detail

In This section the user can have a more detailed look at weekly excess mortality by analysing each year individually, as well as visualising the individual vaccine dose rollout.

Weekly Excess Deaths or Death Rate

The chart below shows the cumulative excess deaths (or death rate) for 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The sum of all Covid-19 vaccination doses as a percentage of the age group population are also shown. The user can select the age group, country and either the absolute number excess deaths or excess deaths rates.

The chart below shows the cumulative excess deaths (or death rate) for a selected year. The individual Covid-19 vaccination doses as a percentage of the age group population are also shown. The user can select the age group, country, year and either the absolute number excess deaths or excess deaths rates.

Excess Mortality for different age groups

The following chart allows the user to compare the trends in excess mortality during 2020,2021, 2022 and 2023, for the different age groups.

This chart is particularly interesting to investigate excess mortality for older versus younger individuals as the pandemic evolved. In most developed countries, Covid-19 vaccination started to be rolled out in early 2021 and accelerated in March 2021. Vaccine penetration rates achieved high penetration in the population in most of these countries.

The interactive chart allows the user can specify the European country and year.

Weekly excess mortality for different age groups, by year.

Complementary Analysis

Go to Quarter Correlation Analysis with age group selection.

Go to Yearly Correlation Analysis.

Go to Yearly Analysis.

Go to Quarterly Analysis.